Hindsight bias makes us believe we are better predictors than we actually are, causing is to be arrogant about our knowledge and consequently to take too much risk. Confirmation Bias(Part 2) Learn with flashcards, games, and more — for free. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. The Art of Thinking Clearly is a 2013 book by the Swiss writer Rolf Dobelli which describes in short chapters 99 of the most common thinking errors - ranging from cognitive biases to envy and social distortions.. Although the reality of most of these biases is confirmed by reproducible research, there are often controversies about how to classify these biases or how to explain them. The Art of Thinking Clearly. Outcome bias is the tendency to assess decisions based on the results they give. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading The Art of Thinking Clearly. Summary. A fantastic book summarizing a variety of biases that affect our thinking and decision-making. The short chapters of The Art of Thinking Clearly make it easy to get what you need from it.. Dobelli leans heavily on people like Kahneman, Taleb, and others to build this extensive list (99 items!) Rolf Dobelli 20130514. Learn vocabulary, terms, and more with flashcards, games, and other study tools. The book was written as weekly columns in leading newspapers in Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, and later in two German books. What I thought of The Art of Thinking Clearly. The Art of Thinking Clearly - Kindle edition by Rolf Dobelli. The Art of Thinking Clearly by world-class thinker and entrepreneur Rolf Dobelli is an eye-opening look at human psychology and reasoning — essential reading for anyone who wants to avoid “cognitive errors” and make better choices in all aspects of their lives. About This Book. I chose the terms most widely used. The list was originally designed to be used by me alone. We are all guilty of cognitive biases, simple errors we make in day-to-day thinking. Rolf Dobelli’s book, The Art of Thinking Clearly, is a compendium of systematic errors in decision making.While the list of fallacies is not complete, it’s a great launching pad into the best of what others have already figured out. Start studying The Art of Thinking Clearly. Author Rolf Dobelli brings a fresh perspective because of his unique skill-set. The Art of Thinking Clearly exposes 99 cognitive biases simple errors all of us make in our everyday thinking and shows us how to become rational thinkers. But by knowing what they are and how … Key Lessons from “The Art of Thinking Clearly” 1. of things to watch out for. Feb 16, 2020 - The Art Of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli. I can see a cognitive bias I hadn’t heard of before, read a couple of pages that lay it out with good, clear examples, and have a basic understanding of it within a few minutes. Feb 16, 2020 - The Art Of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli. Outcome Bias. Feb 16, 2020 - The Art Of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli. Outcome Bias 2. Hes a Swiss writer, novelist and entrepreneur. Alternative Blindness. Some are effects of information-processing rules (i.e., mental shortcuts), called heuristics, that the brain uses to produce decisions or judgments. However, a bad result does not necessarily mean that a decision was bad. Some come with two or three names attached to them. If you love reading about all thing psychology and human behavior, The Art of Thinking Clearly is the book you don’t want to miss. Some of these thinking errors have been known for centuries; others have been discovered in the last few years. Loss Aversion and Fear of Regret 3.